Here you can find answers to many questions CEO Fiona Jenvey has been asked about Mudpie and the trend forecasting process.
HOW DOES THE TREND FORECASTING PROCESS WORK?
The answer to this question is dependent on the timescale involved. If it starts to rain on a Saturday afternoon it is clear that more umbrellas may be sold in the next half an hour without the need for too much complex analysis. If we are looking 2-3 years ahead of the current selling season then more detailed research is required.
Trend forecasting works in a similar manner regardless of the industry. To forecast a trend it is essential to have a good understanding of the present - 'Where are we now', this means what is going on in our world today, and what effect does this have on the consumer? For this it is essential to have a good handle on news, current affairs, economics, cultural and creative happenings and socio-economic trends. People make different choices based on their emotional connection with the present, which is why their future feelings can be second guessed by looking at the factors that may affect the future. These factors are often socio-economic, political, technical or simply influences from popular culture. The current trend for fairy tale in the world of cinema implies both a back to basics and a need for narrative. These will appear to influence short term trends in fashion, however it is important to note that companies such as Disney and Warner Bros subscribe to trend information (they subscribe to Mudpie trends via our Los Angeles office) so would have been well aware of these emergent trends at least 3 years ago when we first published our surrealism trend in 2006. It is also useful to study the past, how did people react to parallel situations previously, what emotional connection points are there, this is another way of second guessing the future.
HOW FAR IN ADVANCE OF A SEASON ARE PREDICTIONS FORECASTED? DOES IT VARY FOR DIFFERENT PRODUCTS?
We forecast around 3 years ahead of the current selling season and publish over 2 years ahead, most online service forecast a year to 18 months ahead simply because they tend to 'report on' rather than 'forecast' their trends. We also forecast close to season which means that we pick up on runway trends likely to make it to the high street. We are not unique in this area of our work as other online trend services provide the same.
DO YOU WORK TO A PARTICULAR MODEL (PROCESS)?
We do have a process which is a method we have developed in house and is widely recognised to be the most accurate. The process itself is based on thorough research where all the information is distilled from 100s of micro trends into 3 main themes. The skill is not in gathering and processing the information, it is assessing the likely speed to market which requires an accurate assessment of when that trend will be at its most important. If the emerging trend is too accelerated it may not be advanced enough to go in our printed publications and may be more suited to a closer to season trend on our online service Mpdclick.com.
HOW ARE DECISIONS MADE? WHO DECIDES ON THE TRENDS? (COLOUR, FABRIC, PATTERN, SILHOUETTE ETC)
No one person makes the decisions as trend research is best done as a collective activity - although I do have the final say. Experience is essential in trend research and it is definitely one area of the fashion industry where age can count in your favour. As a CEO and trend expert in my very early 40s I am comparatively young in an industry that values experience however expertise on a particular area is important regardless. I for example am very strong on socio-political trends, economics, art, industrial design and architecture, although others contribute to this also. I am not strong on music so someone else contributes that.
We have a trends team who decide on 'how the trend will look'. We create the trends by looking at a range of areas which include current affairs, socio-economic trends, politics, art, popular culture, music, architecture, technology, design and innovation. We then randomly add these 'micro trends' to our trend journal and gradually distil them into smaller and smaller groups of trends. Along the way we identify items that are close to season as possibilities for 'fast fashion' or flash trends', we discard items that lack commercial potential.
HOW DO YOU BUILD THE TRENDS AND HOW DO YOU IDENTIFY WHICH TRENDS ARE GOING TO BE IMPORTANT?
Every trend forecaster has their own way of working. My own interests extend far beyond fashion and these are what I use for the basis of trend research. I am a firm believer in the predictive benefits of politics and economics and other drivers of social change as an accurate forecaster of future trends, and therefore we look at a range of areas which include current affairs, socio-economic trends, politics, art, popular culture, music, architecture, technology, design and innovation. At Mudpie we have a trends team, each person has an area which reflects their personal interests. These include, art, architecture, politics, economics, media, entertainment, technology and social sciences. Our trends team look at these area and we aggregate both the popular and emerging themes. We then randomly add these 'micro trends' to our trend journal and gradually distil them into smaller and smaller groups of trends. Along the way we identify items that are close to season as possibilities for 'fast fashion' or flash trends', we discard items that lack commercial potential. We create and develop all of our own trends, there is nothing available in the market that is far enough ahead for us to use as a 'package' so we gather our information from a wide variety of intelligent non fashion resources.We know our trends are very accurate, my role is to ensure that our predicted trends meets market maturation at the same time as the selling season we have forecast it for. Often it is not a case of an inaccurately predicted trends it is that the timing is inaccurate These methods prove themselves time and time again in our published trends which look just as good in the current selling season as they did 28 months before hand when we created them.
WHO USES TREND FORECASTING AND HOW DO THEY USE IT?
Our customers are typically large retailers, brands and suppliers. We offer a range of subscription packages which makes Mpdclick accessible to the smaller brand, creative start up and freelance designer. We are also popular in the education sector. Our largest academic subscriber is new school in New York which has a 15,000 user licence. We also have several academic subscribers around the UK and have a number of large universities converting in September/ October '10 to Mpdclick from their existing supplier.
We created our information with the fashion industry in mind which has made it popular with a broad range of industries, our trend services sell to car manufacturers, financial institutions, mobile phone brands and pharmaceutical companies as well as a broad range of fashion brands and retailers. Today every product is a fashion product and therefore influence by fashion trends. Marketing agencies, industrial designers and technology companies are all big users of trends and often use information which is very long range. The longevity of the information required is usually linked to the lifespan of the product. Most people do not change their car every 6 months so mid range trends are needed for this which tends to be socio-economic and influenced by longer range technology trends. Inspirations that represent a decade are important touch points, such as architecture. Architecture built today will be defined as 'teens', reflecting the period 2010-2020, and industrial design will follow the aesthetic principles of this period in many ways. The fashion industry uses trend forecasting for planning and building collections, these run in parallel to the fast fashion offer which is much more reactive and close to market. Currently there is a trend for longevity and classic as a reaction to both considered consumption and sustainability (buy better less often) this translates in fashion to vintage, design re-issues or ‘vintage inspired’ the same is true for cars, architecture, and interiors, look at the re-design of the fiat 500 for example. The Fiat 500 will not last forever, nevertheless it represents classic and is an accessible statement of vintage brand values.
ARE TRENDS THE DRIVING FORCE OF THE FASHION BUSINESS?
Trends are important in the fashion industry because they guide designers and help retailers and brands make the right product development decisions. However our universe of consumption has cultivated a retrograde trend for imitation rather than innovation. The result is that trends have been driven very close to market in some sectors which has created 'fast fashion', and the current preoccupation with price is driven by the need to differentiate the identical plethora of products available in every high street retailer. Looking at long range trends is still important as it can help even the fast fashion retailer make an informed decision about which trend to back and enable the buyer to look at the runway or street fashion from an informed perspective.
The fashion industry needs forecasters more than it thinks it does, other product related industries look much longer range. Automotive design, interiors and architecture as well as consumer hardlines design for a decade rather than a season, or in the case of architecture the design often represents the attitudes of an entire generation. One of the problems with the retail environment today is the fixation with the runway rather than own design. Runway and celebrity inspiration is fine for a fun fast fashion line, however it should not replace consumer insight or become a way of short cutting creativity. Looking at the consumer allows the brand, retailer and designer to understand the bigger picture. Currently the profits of almost every high street retailer depend on a ‘re-work’ of the same runway collections, creating a dangerous precedent where ubiquitous poor quality product can only be differentiated by price. I firmly believe in the words of Alan Kay, the pioneering computer scientist “The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Brands, retailers and designers should use trend information as a tool for creating an original desirable product which represents the values of the brand- this is something that Topshop Unique does very well, and could be done by other creative retailers in a very commercial way.
WHAT DEPTH / RANGE OF INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE?
The availability of trend intelligence is only limited by lack of time as the process of collating and analysing the information. Much of the basic information is freely available online and on almost every news-stand. This is why companies like Mudpie are important in the industry as we short cut the need for companies to develop trend intelligence in house. Moreover we also work with global companies with in-house R+D. These companies use services such as Mudpie to confirm their own trends; we do this ourselves with parallel Trend companies such as the Future Laboratory, and JWT (J Walter Thompson) - organisations who supply trend information to the design, lifestyle and marketing industries. The Future Laboratory have usually forecast parallel trends to our own which provides a useful confirmation of our own trends.
HOW DOES IT WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH QUICK RESPONSE ISSUES?
There is no such thing as fast fashion unless it is driven by an unprecedented event. No trend service can predict an unexpected event and often the whole market will 'react' simultaneously without the need for trend information, how often do such events really occur? For example following the untimely death of Alexander McQueen, Liberty of London created a window display in his memory. Meanwhile the trend accelerated and the value of Alexander McQueen investment pieces increased overnight. Retailers at all market levels will respond to this trend with interpretations of his A/W 10 collection and the famed 'scull' scarf. McQueen's A/W10 show would undoubtedly have influenced retail regardless as his last collection was a strong one. His death has accelerated the trend for the McQueen brand causing retailers to copy and cash in on his final collection.
Outside of this there is no such thing as fast fashion, this is better referred to as 'copying', the Mc Queen collection may be a favourite of the high street, let’s not forget though actually created it. The process that the original designer went through to develop their ideas would be a painstaking path to perfection. The same applies to Artists in the music industry who have developed an 'identity' carefully over time. However you look at it someone somewhere else has developed considered and created that look long before it arrived on the UK High Street.
WHAT ARE YOUR DISTINGUISHING QUALITIES AND WHO ARE YOUR MAIN COMPETITORS?
The Mudpie trend books are the undisputed market leader and we sell more trend books and printed trend materials than any other competitor worldwide. Mpdclick.com our online service is currently seeing the highest industry growth. This is because we are at the forefront of innovation, trend intelligence and creativity. These are all things that the market currently needs and that we are very good at. WGSN is a very strong competitor and is a widely used online industry magazine. Comparatively we see Stylesight as a technology service, their 'Software as a Service' strap line clearly conveys a very different position from our own.
I prefer to think in terms of choices rather than competition. Mudpie is about creativity, trends and intelligence, as a company we are design rather than technology driven and are unrivalled on these areas. However for the non creative fashion, management and IT functions our competitors WGSN and Stylesight may well offer a more suitable service.
Mudpie is a creative intelligence company. Other trend forecasting sites can be better described as 'magazines' in that they 'report' on what is happening, rather like the Drapers Record does but on a much larger scale. These companies supply a range of resources to support their reports. Because we are a trend forecasting service our trend intelligence is published much earlier than our competitors as our research process starts around 1 year previous to theirs. We are able to do this because our methods take in economic, socio, political trends and other drivers of social trends. In addition to our work in the trend forecasting industry we also work with the brands and retailers advising on creative strategy, market position and product design, this makes our information very relevant to the industry as we also work in it. We are also the only trend forecasting company that publishes in print and online which means we have to commit to our trends as they appear on paper and are therefore not able to be adjusted later. It is this that ensures that our forecast is the most accurate in the industry.
Mudpie are very collaborative and we exchange information with other publications, websites and parallel businesses. We are also number one on social networking and exchange ideas via our LinkedIn group which is very valuable for both us and our clients. Mudpie was also the first company to give a virtual reality trend seminar in second life, because we are a very client orientated company we are continuously exploring new ways to deliver our information.
Technically other websites may offer I-phone apps and enhanced zoom functions. We have made sure that we have invested in technical standards that enable our CADs, graphics, and print to be used in industry standards such as Lectra Kaledo and other widely used applications. Both our website and trend books support a higher number of software solutions than any of our competitors meaning that the design studio can access the information in one format and the industry can access in another. Again our unique experience of working as designers has enabled a clear understanding of what is required.
ARE THE TRENDS DIRECTED AT SPECIFIC MARKETS? - GLOBAL MARKETS?
Because we are represented in over 50 countries our trends are international. However as a business based in the UK we will always be UK centric to some extent. As an island nation with 12% of our population foreign born, other cultures are well represented in the UK. Our best markets include the USA, South America and India, Southern Europe and Scandinavia.
HOW DOES THE CONSUMER BENEFIT / WHO DICTATES?
Our services sell business to business rather than business to consumer. However as a trend forecasting company we help companies understand the consumer by providing ideas that their customer will feel an emotional connection to and clearly the brand or retailer benefits from this by seeing an uplift in sales which is a good reason for investing in trend information.
HOW HAS CELEBRITY ENDORSEMENT / COPYING AFFECTED TREND FORECASTING?
Let’s look at the Balmain Motorcycle jean from the S/S 2009 and A/W 09/10 collections - since that runway sighting, this style has been seen on trend-setting celebrities like Cameron Diaz, Shenae Grimes, and Rihanna. This is a trend, and one forecast for mainstream brands, however at $2000 very expensive and quickly copied by the high street. This means that the whole high street was backing the same horse - sensible? Maybe, but how many motorcycle jeans can a person own? Celerity fashion and copying becomes something different which is better referred to as 'fast fashion'. This is the point where a trend accelerates and becomes all about price and speed to market. This does not affect the underlying trend, if we ask ourselves why Balmain came up with the motorcycle jean in the first place, we can see the research in place; growth in both cycling (up 70% in London over the last decade) and biking (up 6% annually to 2011). City Bike schemes such as Paris were first reported in 2007 and have been well documented. Mudpie published 2 similar biker jean styles in April 08 (developed A/W 07/08) in our MPK female book as part of our kinetic trend, while I can't claim Balmain bought our trend books they would have looked at similar information. This is another good example of how what appeared to be 'fast fashion' was developed over time by Balmain for the runway and of course Mudpie.
WHAT IS MPDCLICK.COM?
mpdclick.com is the fastest growing online trend service in the market today and grew by 67% last year. mpdclick.com is best described as a service offering creative trend intelligence.
WHERE ARE YOU BASED?
Our registered office is 1 hour south of London, near Southampton, in the UK. In reality we have researchers in more than 50 locations worldwide and an international network of partners and distributors making us a global company.
WHAT KIND OF INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND?
Our information is best described as 'creative intelligence' rather than information. After all, today information is very easy to come by but knowing what to use, and when and how to use it is what turns this readily available information into a powerful intelligence tool. Aside from our creative intelligence and trends which are important features on Mpdclick we offer a comprehensive runway which also looks at the up and coming fashion weeks as well as the big 4. Street and retail are also very important areas on Mpdclick. What is unbeatable is our design, especially graphics which are unrivalled both in quality and volume. This also applies to our trend books which lead the market in this area.
DOES THE SITE ALSO OFFER FORECASTING IN SALES TRENDS?
We cover retail share prices in our business area as well as industry intelligence. It is very difficult to make this international as clearly to look at how much of a particular item has sold the information needs to be market specific. It is easy to identify if Top Shop sold more t-shirts than H+M this week in the UK but this information is not relevant to a subscriber in Brazil. DR in the UK cover this information very well as do Textilwirtschaft in Germany and WWD in the USA.
WHY WAS THE DECISION MADE TO VENTURE ONLINE TO COMPLIMENT THE MUDPIE FORECASTING PUBLICATIONS?
It is important for people to access information in different ways.
WHAT WAS THE INSPIRATION FOR STARTING MUDPIE? DID YOU IDENTIFY A PARTICULAR GAP IN THE MARKET?
I never intend to start a business, and would describe myself as an accidental entrepreneur. You could say that my inspiration was finding myself a job. I was made redundant in 1992 at the age of 22 when the private label supplier I worked for went into administration. My motivation was paying my mortgage and I started off freelancing for all the high street retailers I had worked with previously as a designer for a supplier. Mudpie started as a design consultancy, the way I worked in the early days was to put my client in direct contact with the manufacturer on the understanding that I would continue to work on trends, colours, concepts and final artwork for the retailer.
WHICH EVENTS/TREND FAIRS DO YOU ATTEND?
• Catwalks - Yes we cover all major runway shows and some of the smaller directional shows as well.
• Trend Shows/Fabric Fairs - We cover all the major apparel and fabric trade shows for example bread and butter and premier vision. Again the smaller directional shows can be just as important.
• Overseas Trips - These are too numerous to list; we are represented in over 50 counties and have a wider network than any other provider.
• Other trend forecasting publications/sites? - We don't subscribe to any other trend forecasting sites as we are further ahead than they are. WGSN did have a subscription to Mpdclick before Christmas as they wanted to have a look at their competitors. We agreed to this on the basis that we could 'exchange' subscriptions which we did for 3 months which is why I can say with certainty that we are ahead of the market.
HOW DOES MPDCLICK.COM TRANSFORM THE INFORMATION GATHERED INTO LOOKS/STORIES?
We decide on a commercial interpretation of the trend based on what the consumer is most likely to purchase. We create 3 or 4 trends and 3 subtrends for each. These each represent the different preferences of the target consumer. We work in a similar way with our design consultancy clients but closer to season.
HOW DO YOU THINK THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE INTERNET HAS AIDED IN THE FORECASTING PROCESS?
I am not sure it has aided it as much as changed it. It is probably true that 'real time' reporting or 'blogging' has done much for fast fashion however is this better known as 'copying'? It should be noted that there is no such thing as fast fashion unless it is driven by an unprecedented event. No trend service can predict an unexpected event and often the whole market will 'react' simultaneously. Alexander McQueen's death has accelerated the trend for the McQueen brand causing retailers to copy and cash in on his final collection, still copying yet also fast fashion. The Internet makes resources instantly available, archives of previous collections for example will have proved very useful.
Outside of this there is no such thing as fast fashion, this is better referred to as 'copying', when we look at the fashion shows and consider this information fast fashion let’s not forget though who actually created it. The process that the original designer went through to develop their ideas would be a painstaking path to perfection. The same applies to Artists in the music industry who have developed an 'identity' carefully over time. However you look at it someone somewhere else has developed, considered and created that look long before it arrived on the UK High Street. As a soon to be graduate how long will it take to create your collection, and is this 'slow' or 'fast' fashion. If a large brand copies it at graduate fashion week what is it now, a trend setting collection, fast fashion or plain rip off?
HOW DO YOU THINK TREND FORECASTING WILL EVOLVE IN THE FUTURE?
The most exciting development is augmented reality. In my opinion the big changes will occur in the delivery of the information, or the communication between brand and consumer. There is something interesting developing between the virtual worlds of Second Life, Science Sim and Augmented Reality. Augmented Reality will give us a means of experiencing a ‘trend', this opens up new possibilities for presenting information which is neither purely online or in print. AR could be used for something as simple as understanding the application of the trend, for example a merchandiser could test how a range could look in an augmented reality store environment. For the consumer the reality is that body scanning technology that enables the virtual shopper to create a realistic virtual self (avatar) is already available, thereby allowing the 'shopper' to check the fit from all angles.
This opens up all kinds of possibilities for garment design and manufacture and of course the trend development process. Firstly, samples could be entirely 'virtually' designed and developed as 3D prototypes in a virtual environment and realized on the virtual runway before becoming a finished material product in the real world. Less time and resources are then wasted on travel and materials within the product development cycle.
The only limitation to the reality of virtual shopping is self image- the average female is not ready to accept the virtual 'reality' of her own body image as seen from every angle - this will take more than web 4 or 5 or even ScienceSim to solve! Until then the 3D delights of the virtual grocery store is the next likely commercially successful development in Internet shopping and is something that the grocery retailer Tesco is already reported to be looking at.
DO YOU THINK THAT THE PUBLISHED FORECASTING MATERIALS WILL START TO DECLINE OR ARE THEY STILL NECESSARY TO COMPLIMENT THE ONLINE RESOURCES?
I probably answered this question above. I don't think there will be such a thing as on or offline, just information. One thing is for sure the world of printed media will become more engaging than ever before.
HAS THE FASHION FORECASTING PROCESS CHANGED IN RECENT YEARS?
The process itself has not really changed, the way that we locate the information comes much more via online than from print, although most of the real inspiration comes from online versions of printed publications. Online has also created infinite sources of information which has made the job both easier because of the ease of locating information and harder since a greater mass of intelligence needs to be developed into meaningful trend information.
HOW DO YOU ANALYSE THE ACCURACY OF YOUR PREDICTIONS?
We publish forecast right on track which looks at how accurate our forecasts are in the current selling season. Any trend company can point to random areas of accuracy. If we predict 3 trends all three need to be right. In summer 09 we presented our forecast right on track to a well known London financial institution and they were shocked at the accuracy of the information which we had worked on 3 years earlier, especially as it accurately predicted the recession, which even the Economist admitted in print that its failure to foresee.
HOW DOES MUDPIE DIFFER FROM OTHER TREND AGENCIES ? WHAT IS YOUR UNIQUE SELLING POINT?
Because of the way we do our research we are very forward thinking. This not only applies to our trends but also to the D&A of our business. We are a very collaborative in a traditional industry which is often shrouded in secrecy. Innovation for us is not about the latest technology, but about how that technology delivers our information. For example we pioneered a live trend with our participation in the world’s first ‘virtual’ trend conference in ScienceSim in December 09.
Mudpie has a very successful design consultancy which works with brands, retailers and suppliers, delivering trends, colours and day today design requirements this might include the creative repositioning of the entire brand or something as simple as a range of graphic t-shirts. The trend is important and so is the final application, this is not easily understood by other online services because of our background I believe that Mudpie is the only trend company who understands how designers, brands and retailers need to work with trends.
WHAT ADVICE WOULD YOU GIVE TO A STUDENT WHO WANTS TO LEARN HOW TO IDENTIFY AND INTERPRET TRENDS?
I would suggest developing a wide range of interests. The world of trends is an ever expanding universe of ideas which are shared in an ever expanding way. It is easy to think that every answer is available via online blogs but often the most directional information comes from a printed newspaper in a very random way or an unexpected encounter with the creative arts. Everything available to us is just information, we can all read it and see it however it must be interpreted in a meaningful way and this involves a detailed process of gathering and distilling the information into a single common denominator, which defines the season. For A/W 11/12 we have called this ‘the new equilibrium’ which marks the end of consumer decadence and the start of stable growth where the whole cycle of production and consumption becomes the responsibility of every consumer retailer and brand. This breaks down into 3 trends, synergy, Primal and innovate.
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