Fiona Jenvey, CEO of Mudpie was recently interviewed by Chris Twine, MSc for a publication on fashion forecasting, in conjunction with Manchester Metropolitan University in the UK.

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CT: HOW DOES THE TREND FORECASTING PROCESS WORK?

FJ: The answer to this question is dependent on the timescale involved. If it starts to rain on a Saturday afternoon it is clear that more umbrellas may be sold in the next half an hour without the need for too much complex analysis. If we are looking 2-3 years ahead of the current selling season then more detailed research is required. Trend forecasting works in a similar manner regardless of the industry. To forecast a trend it is essential to have a good understanding of the present - 'where are we now', this means what is going on in our world today, and what effect does this have on the consumer? For this it is essential to have a good handle on news, current affairs, economics, cultural and creative happenings and socio-economic trends. People make different choices based on their emotional connection with the present, which is why their future feelings can be second guessed by looking at the factors that may affect the future. These factors are often socio-economic, political, technical or simply influences from popular culture. The current trend for fairy tale in the world of cinema implies both a back-to-basics and a need for narrative. These will appear to influence short term trends in fashion, however it is important to note that companies such as Disney and Warner Bros subscribe to trend information (they subscribe to Mudpie trends via our Los Angeles office) so would have been well aware of these emergent trends at least 3 years ago when we first published our surrealism trend in 2006. It is also useful to study the past, how did people react to parallel situations previously, what emotional connection points are there, this is another way of second guessing the future.

CT: DO YOU WORK TO A PARTICULAR MODEL (PROCESS)?

FJ: We do have a process which is a method we have developed in house and is widely recognised to be the most accurate. The process itself is based on thorough research where all the information is distilled from 100’s of micro trends into 3 main themes. The skill is not in gathering and processing the information, it is assessing the likely speed to market which requires an accurate assessment of when that trend will be at its most important. If the emerging trend is too accelerated it may not be advanced enough to go in our printed publications and may be more suited to a closer to season trend on our online service Mpdclick.com.

CT: HOW ARE DECISIONS MADE?

FJ: No one person makes the decisions as trend research is best done as a collective activity - although I do have the final say. Experience is essential in trend research and it is definitely one area of the fashion industry where age can count in your favour. As a CEO and trend expert in my very early 40’s I am comparatively young in an industry that values experience, however expertise on a particular area is important regardless. I, for example am very strong on socio-political trends, economics, art, industrial design and architecture, although others contribute to this also. I am not strong on music so someone else contributes that.

CT: HOW DO YOU BUILD THE TRENDS?

FJ: We look at a range of areas which include current affairs, socio-economic trends, politics, art, popular culture, music, architecture, technology, design and innovation. We then randomly add these 'micro trends' to our trend journal and gradually distil them into smaller and smaller groups of trends. Along the way we identify items that are close to season as possibilities for 'fast fashion' or ‘flash trends', we discard items that lack commercial potential.

CT: WHO USES TREND FORECASTING?

FJ: Other industries are better at using trend information than the fashion industry. Marketing agencies, industrial designers and technology companies are all big users of trends and often use information which is very long range. The longevity of the information required is usually linked to the lifespan of the product. Most people do not change their car every 6 months so mid range trends are needed for this, which tend to be socio-economic and influenced by longer range technology trends. Inspirations that represent a decade are important touch points, such as architecture. Architecture built today will be defined as 'teens', reflecting the period 2010-2020, and industrial design will follow the aesthetic principles of this period in many ways. The fashion industry uses trend forecasting for planning and building collections, these run in parallel to the fast fashion offer which is much more reactive and close to market.

CT: IS IT THE DRIVING FORCE OF THE FASHION BUSINESS?

FJ: Trends are important in the fashion industry because they guide designers and help retailers and brands make the right product development decisions. However our universe of consumption has cultivated a retrograde trend for imitation rather than innovation. The result is that trends have been driven very close to market in some sectors which has created 'fast fashion', and the current preoccupation with price is driven by the need to differentiate the identical plethora of products available in every high street retailer. Looking at long range trends is still important as it can help even the fast fashion retailer make an informed decision about which trend to back and enable the buyer to look at the runway or street fashion from an informed perspective.

CT: WHAT DEPTH / RANGE OF INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE?

FJ: The availability of trend intelligence is only limited by lack of time as the process of collating and analysing the information. Much of the basic information is freely available online and on almost every news-stand. This is why companies like Mudpie are important in the industry as we short cut the need for companies to develop trend intelligence in house. Moreover we also work with global companies with in-house R+D. These companies use services such as Mudpie to confirm their own trends, we do this ourselves with parallel trend companies such as the Future Laboratory, and JWT (J Wallter Thompson) organisations who supply trend information to the design, lifestyle and marketing industries. The Future Laboratory usually forecast parallel trends to our own which provides a useful confirmation of our own trends.

CT: HOW DOES IT WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH QUICK RESPONSE ISSUES?

FJ: There is no such thing as ‘fast fashion’ unless it is driven by an unprecedented event. No trend service can predict an unexpected event and often the whole market will 'react' simultaneously without the need for trend information, how often do such events really occur? For example following the untimely death of Alexander McQueen, Liberty of London created a window display in his memory. Meanwhile the trend accelerated and the value of Alexander McQueen investment pieces increased overnight. Retailers at all market levels will respond to this trend with interpretations of his A/W 10 collection and the famed 'scull' scarf. McQueen's A/W10 show would undoubtedly have influenced retail regardless as his last collection was a strong one. His death has accelerated the trend for the McQueen brand causing retailers to copy and cash in on his final collection. Outside of this there is no such thing as fast fashion, this is better referred to as 'copying', the McQueen collection may be a favourite of the high street, lets not forget though who first created it. The process that the original designer went through to develop their ideas would be a painstaking path to perfection. The same applies to Artists in the music industry that have developed an 'identity' carefully over time. However you look at it someone somewhere else has developed, considered and created that look long before it arrived on the UK High Street.

CT: WHO ARE YOUR MAIN COMPETITORS?

FJ: The Mudpie trend books are the undisputed market leader and we sell more trend books and printed trend materials than any other competitor worldwide. Mpdclick.com our online service is currently seeing the highest industry growth. This is because we are at the forefront of innovation, trend intelligence and creativity. These are all things that the market currently needs and that we are very good at. WGSN is a very strong competitor and is a widely used online industry magazine. Comparatively we see Stylesight as a technology service, their 'Software as a Service' strap line clearly conveys a very different position from our own. I prefer to think in terms of choices rather than competition. Mudpie is about creativity, trends and intelligence, as a company we are design rather than technology driven and are unrivalled on these areas. However for the non creative fashion, management and IT functions our competitors WGSN and Stylesight may well offer a more suitable service.

CT: ARE THE TRENDS DIRECTED AT SPECIFIC MARKETS / GLOBAL MARKETS?

FJ: Because we are represented in over 50 countries our trends are international. However as a business based in the UK we will always be UK centric to some extent. As an island nation with 12% of our population foreign born, other cultures are well represented in the UK. Our best markets include the USA, South America and India, Southern Europe and Scandinavia.

CT: HOW DOES THE CONSUMER BENEFIT / WHO DICTATES?

FJ: Our services sell business to business rather than business to consumer. However as a trend forecasting company we help companies understand the consumer by providing ideas that their customer will feel an emotional connection to and clearly the brand or retailer benefits from this by seeing an uplift in sales which is a good reason for investing in trend information.

CT: HOW HAVE CELEBRITY ENDORSEMENT / COPYING AFFECTED TREND FORECASTING?

FJ: Let’s look at the Balmain Motorcycle jean from the S/S 2009 and A/W 09/10 collections - since that runway sighting, this style has been seen on trend-setting celebrities like Cameron Diaz, Shenae Grimes, and Rihanna. This is a trend, and one forecast for mainstream brands, however at $2000 very expensive and quickly copied by the high street. This means that the whole high street was backing the same horse - sensible? Maybe, but how many motorcycle jeans can a person own? Celebrity fashion and copying becomes something different which is better referred to as 'fast fashion'. This is the point where a trend accelerates and becomes all about price and speed to market. This does not affect the underlying trend, if we ask ourselves why Balmain came up with the motorcycle jean in the first place, we can see the research in place; growth in both cycling (up 70% in London over the last decade) and biking (up 6% annually to 2011). City Bike schemes such as Paris was first reported in 2007 and have been well documented. Mudpie published 2 similar biker jean styles in April 08 (developed A/W 07/08) in our MPK female book as part of our Kinetic trend. While I can't claim Balmain bought our trend books, they would have looked at similar information. This is another good example of how what appeared to be 'fast fashion' was developed over time by Balmain for the runway and of course Mudpie.